Abstract

This paper demonstrates a large but little-known negative externality of the aviation industry. Using a new instrument for air pollution from aircraft cruising, we show that pollution is higher beneath overhead flight routes in ways uncorrelated with local pollution. We combine this cross-sectional variation with the launch of new flight routes to establish several findings. First, aircraft cruising persistently elevates local PM2.5 by 1-3 μg/m3. Second, PM2.5 has adverse impacts on infant health via lower birth weights, including in 44 developing countries where data are scarce. Third, we leverage the fact that propeller planes still use leaded fuel to show that 1 ng/m3 ambient lead reduces fertility rates by 0.19%. Fourth, we generalize this in relation to the historical phase-out of leaded fuel in vehicles, which our analysis suggests added over 2 million people per year to the global population---making it among the most material public health interventions. We provide this global gridded airline data product for use in future research.

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https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4754697